SAFCO’s net profit drops 27% in nine-months 2015

SAFCO’s net profit drops 27% in nine-months 2015

18/10/2015 Argaam Exclusive

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Saudi Arabian Fertilizer Co. (SAFCO), one of the world’s largest producers of urea, has reported a net profit of SAR 1.75 billion for the first nine months of 2015; a 27 percent year-on-year (YOY) decline due to lower sales prices, a drop in sales volumes, as well as maintenance at its SAFCO 4 plant.



Financials (M)

Item 9m 2014 9m 2015 Change‬
Revenues 3,362.74 2,733.60 (18.7 %)
Gross Income 2,312.39 1,724.75 (25.4 %)
Operating Income 2,241.56 1,671.52 (25.4 %)
Net Income 2,394.86 1,751.88 (26.8 %)
Average Shares 416.67 416.67 -
EPS (Riyals) 5.75 4.20 (26.8 %)

 

The company’s Q3-2015 net profit reached SAR 566 million, marking a 38 percent drop when compared to SAR 913 million recorded in the same quarter last year.



Current Quarter Comparison (M)

Compared With The
Item Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Change‬
Revenues 1,248.62 887.43 (28.9 %)
Gross Income 890.35 567.64 (36.2 %)
Operating Income 865.60 551.33 (36.3 %)
Net Income 913.37 566.15 (38.0 %)
Average Shares 416.67 416.67 -
EPS (Riyals) 2.19 1.36 (38.0 %)


Financial results (Million)

Period Revenues Change Gross Income Change Operating Income Change
Q1 2006 440.41 (3.6 %) 246.93 2.3 % 226.68 2.2 %
Q2 2006 463.65 9.0 % 282.86 14.3 % 260.17 17.2 %
Q3 2006 417.13 (13.9 %) 242.49 (24.5 %) 221.42 (25.8 %)
Q4 2006 510.06 11.5 % 317.97 20.1 % 280.18 17.1 %
Q1 2007 521.50 18.4 % 311.18 26.0 % 285.02 25.7 %
Q2 2007 815.13 75.8 % 569.75 101.4 % 535.41 105.8 %
Q3 2007 1,013.15 142.9 % 648.51 167.4 % 594.76 168.6 %
Q4 2007 1,046.02 105.1 % 783.30 146.3 % 730.49 160.7 %
Q1 2008 825.44 58.3 % 643.92 106.9 % 621.72 118.1 %
Q2 2008 1,347.23 65.3 % 1,101.60 93.3 % 1,068.52 99.6 %
Q3 2008 2,202.95 117.4 % 1,920.32 196.1 % 1,872.54 214.8 %
Q4 2008 976.32 (6.7 %) 659.83 (15.8 %) 648.19 (11.3 %)
Q1 2009 739.47 (10.4 %) 452.74 (29.7 %) 436.84 (29.7 %)
Q2 2009 685.74 (49.1 %) 456.16 (58.6 %) 437.90 (59.0 %)
Q3 2009 714.39 (67.6 %) 450.72 (76.5 %) 432.43 (76.9 %)
Q4 2009 601.11 (38.4 %) 358.75 (45.6 %) 350.45 (45.9 %)
Q1 2010 863.79 16.8 % 642.97 42.0 % 618.12 41.5 %
Q2 2010 732.66 6.8 % 578.93 26.9 % 565.63 29.2 %
Q3 2010 890.73 24.7 % 549.99 22.0 % 536.27 24.0 %
Q4 2010 1,302.29 116.6 % 918.08 155.9 % 901.91 157.4 %
Q1 2011 1,037.85 20.1 % 775.20 20.6 % 757.37 22.5 %
Q2 2011 1,129.51 54.2 % 778.07 34.4 % 757.22 33.9 %
Q3 2011 1,378.89 54.8 % 1,083.97 97.1 % 1,061.82 98.0 %
Q4 2011 1,504.99 15.6 % 1,128.01 22.9 % 1,097.70 21.7 %
Q1 2012 1,061.50 2.3 % 753.60 (2.8 %) 735.02 (3.0 %)
Q2 2012 1,115.96 (1.2 %) 743.75 (4.4 %) 725.94 (4.1 %)
Q3 2012 1,398.10 1.4 % 1,063.56 (1.9 %) 1,039.69 (2.1 %)
Q4 2012 1,404.84 (6.7 %) 1,047.40 (7.1 %) 1,020.92 (7.0 %)
Q1 2013 1,177.76 11.0 % 852.82 13.2 % 830.20 12.9 %
Q2 2013 982.88 (11.9 %) 651.93 (12.3 %) 633.13 (12.8 %)
Q3 2013 1,071.88 (23.3 %) 695.40 (34.6 %) 675.82 (35.0 %)
Q4 2013 1,007.88 (28.3 %) 678.47 (35.2 %) 658.33 (35.5 %)
Q1 2014 1,178.36 0.1 % 819.80 (3.9 %) 797.22 (4.0 %)
Q2 2014 935.77 (4.8 %) 602.24 (7.6 %) 578.75 (8.6 %)
Q3 2014 1,248.62 16.5 % 890.35 28.0 % 865.60 28.1 %
Q4 2014 1,093.39 8.5 % 754.48 11.2 % 727.87 10.6 %
Q1 2015 962.42 (18.3 %) 603.11 (26.4 %) 582.85 (26.9 %)
Q2 2015 883.75 (5.6 %) 553.99 (8.0 %) 537.33 (7.2 %)
Q3 2015 887.43 (28.9 %) 567.64 (36.2 %) 551.33 (36.3 %)


Profit Performance (Million)

Period Net Income Change EPS(Riyal) Extraordinary Income/Expense Net Profit Before Unusual Items EPS Before XO Items
Q1 2006 275.44 16.5 % 0.66 - 275.44 0.66
Q2 2006 290.01 21.9 % 0.70 - 290.01 0.70
Q3 2006 271.36 (21.2 %) 0.65 - 271.36 0.65
Q4 2006 314.52 11.8 % 0.75 - 314.52 0.75
Q1 2007 319.79 16.1 % 0.77 - 319.79 0.77
Q2 2007 530.32 82.9 % 1.27 - 530.32 1.27
Q3 2007 616.17 127.1 % 1.48 - 616.17 1.48
Q4 2007 741.58 135.8 % 1.78 (10.17) 751.72 1.80
Q1 2008 723.38 126.2 % 1.74 25.15 698.24 1.68
Q2 2008 1,190.94 124.6 % 2.86 (17.41) 1,208.35 2.90
Q3 2008 1,821.92 195.7 % 4.37 - 1,821.92 4.37
Q4 2008 535.86 (27.7 %) 1.29 (258.30) 763.26 1.83
Q1 2009 524.53 (27.5 %) 1.26 26.17 498.36 1.20
Q2 2009 480.35 (59.7 %) 1.15 1.68 478.67 1.15
Q3 2009 464.15 (74.5 %) 1.11 22.05 442.10 1.06
Q4 2009 335.26 (37.4 %) 0.80 21.15 314.10 0.75
Q1 2010 698.26 33.1 % 1.68 - 698.26 1.68
Q2 2010 907.20 88.9 % 2.18 302.53 604.68 1.45
Q3 2010 603.82 30.1 % 1.45 - 603.82 1.45
Q4 2010 1,025.34 205.8 % 2.46 - 1,025.83 2.46
Q1 2011 832.63 19.2 % 2.00 - 832.63 2.00
Q2 2011 789.93 (12.9 %) 1.90 - 789.93 1.90
Q3 2011 1,210.58 100.5 % 2.91 - 1,210.58 2.91
Q4 2011 1,276.63 24.5 % 3.06 - 1,276.63 3.06
Q1 2012 786.91 (5.5 %) 1.89 - 786.91 1.89
Q2 2012 783.93 (0.8 %) 1.88 - 783.93 1.88
Q3 2012 1,149.00 (5.1 %) 2.76 - 1,149.00 2.76
Q4 2012 1,146.38 (10.2 %) 2.75 - 1,146.38 2.75
Q1 2013 931.59 18.4 % 2.24 - 931.59 2.24
Q2 2013 692.88 (11.6 %) 1.66 - 692.88 1.66
Q3 2013 734.01 (36.1 %) 1.76 - 734.01 1.76
Q4 2013 802.00 (30.0 %) 1.92 44.00 798.57 1.92
Q1 2014 842.50 (9.6 %) 2.02 - 842.50 2.02
Q2 2014 638.99 (7.8 %) 1.53 - 638.99 1.53
Q3 2014 913.37 24.4 % 2.19 - 913.37 2.19
Q4 2014 779.18 (2.8 %) 1.87 37.73 735.90 1.77
Q1 2015 589.98 (30.0 %) 1.42 - 589.98 1.42
Q2 2015 595.76 (6.8 %) 1.43 - 595.76 1.43
Q3 2015 566.15 (38.0 %) 1.36 - 566.15 1.36

Profitability

Period Gross Margin OIBDA Margin Net Margin Before Unusual Items
Q1 2006 59.75 % 65.39 % 63.02 %
Q2 2006 60.43 % 66.15 % 64.53 %
Q3 2006 58.31 % 64.32 % 62.87 %
Q4 2006 59.54 % 64.58 % 62.87 %
Q1 2007 60.37 % 65.00 % 62.52 %
Q2 2007 63.67 % 68.40 % 63.43 %
Q3 2007 64.60 % 68.25 % 62.27 %
Q4 2007 68.11 % 72.37 % 65.32 %
Q1 2008 71.50 % 76.41 % 70.18 %
Q2 2008 75.08 % 79.21 % 77.38 %
Q3 2008 82.06 % 85.15 % 82.64 %
Q4 2008 80.82 % 84.78 % 83.93 %
Q1 2009 78.51 % 82.40 % 81.50 %
Q2 2009 75.78 % 80.50 % 77.36 %
Q3 2009 64.81 % 72.13 % 70.04 %
Q4 2009 62.70 % 68.93 % 63.24 %
Q1 2010 66.62 % 72.45 % 67.47 %
Q2 2010 69.76 % 75.51 % 70.71 %
Q3 2010 68.99 % 74.50 % 71.91 %
Q4 2010 70.99 % 77.07 % 77.39 %
Q1 2011 71.20 % 77.27 % 77.38 %
Q2 2011 69.29 % 74.95 % 74.59 %
Q3 2011 73.33 % 78.93 % 79.59 %
Q4 2011 74.54 % 78.96 % 81.36 %
Q1 2012 73.77 % 78.19 % 80.08 %
Q2 2012 73.29 % 77.86 % 80.18 %
Q3 2012 72.61 % 77.33 % 78.66 %
Q4 2012 72.45 % 77.69 % 77.63 %
Q1 2013 72.74 % 77.97 % 78.70 %
Q2 2013 72.84 % 78.17 % 78.97 %
Q3 2013 70.03 % 76.05 % 75.58 %
Q4 2013 67.89 % 74.79 % 74.45 %
Q1 2014 67.10 % 73.89 % 72.34 %
Q2 2014 66.67 % 73.41 % 71.87 %
Q3 2014 68.43 % 74.29 % 73.07 %
Q4 2014 68.82 % 74.90 % 70.26 %
Q1 2015 67.22 % 73.44 % 67.88 %
Q2 2015 66.90 % 73.61 % 67.69 %
Q3 2015 64.78 % 72.83 % 65.01 %


Per Share Data (Riyal)

Compared With The
Period Shares Outstanding (M) EPS (Riyal) Adjusted EPS (Riyal) Book Value (BV)
Q1 2006 416.67 2.73 2.73 12.15
Q2 2006 416.67 2.86 2.86 9.63
Q3 2006 416.67 2.68 2.68 10.28
Q4 2006 416.67 2.76 2.76 11.37
Q1 2007 416.67 2.87 2.87 12.22
Q2 2007 416.67 3.45 3.45 11.99
Q3 2007 416.67 4.27 4.27 12.22
Q4 2007 416.67 5.30 5.32 14.43
Q1 2008 416.67 6.27 6.23 16.25
Q2 2008 416.67 7.85 7.86 18.16
Q3 2008 416.67 10.75 10.75 18.43
Q4 2008 416.67 10.25 10.78 19.28
Q1 2009 416.67 9.78 10.30 16.44
Q2 2009 416.67 8.07 8.55 17.76
Q3 2009 416.67 4.81 5.24 16.02
Q4 2009 416.67 4.33 4.16 16.84
Q1 2010 416.67 4.75 4.64 14.44
Q2 2010 416.67 5.77 4.94 13.00
Q3 2010 416.67 6.11 5.33 14.46
Q4 2010 416.67 7.76 7.04 17.12
Q1 2011 416.67 8.09 7.36 19.13
Q2 2011 416.67 7.80 7.81 17.41
Q3 2011 416.67 9.26 9.26 16.67
Q4 2011 416.67 9.86 9.86 19.70
Q1 2012 416.67 9.75 9.75 21.77
Q2 2012 416.67 9.74 9.74 19.27
Q3 2012 416.67 9.59 9.59 18.45
Q4 2012 416.67 9.28 9.28 21.26
Q1 2013 416.67 9.63 9.63 23.62
Q2 2013 416.67 9.41 9.41 20.54
Q3 2013 416.67 8.41 8.41 17.66
Q4 2013 416.67 7.59 7.58 19.85
Q1 2014 416.67 7.37 7.36 17.00
Q2 2014 416.67 7.24 7.23 15.34
Q3 2014 416.67 7.67 7.66 17.55
Q4 2014 416.67 7.62 7.51 18.87
Q1 2015 416.67 7.01 6.91 20.16
Q2 2015 416.67 6.91 6.80 19.46
Q3 2015 416.67 6.07 5.97 17.57

Multiple Ratios (End of Period Price)

Compared With The
Period P/E Adjusted P/E Price/book
Q1 2006 37.55 37.55 8.45
Q2 2006 34.33 34.33 10.19
Q3 2006 29.94 29.94 7.81
Q4 2006 22.63 22.63 5.50
Q1 2007 26.18 26.18 6.15
Q2 2007 21.24 21.24 6.11
Q3 2007 16.78 16.78 5.87
Q4 2007 20.54 20.45 7.54
Q1 2008 20.37 20.48 7.85
Q2 2008 22.48 22.46 9.72
Q3 2008 12.34 12.34 7.20
Q4 2008 6.00 5.71 3.19
Q1 2009 6.43 6.11 3.83
Q2 2009 9.64 9.10 4.38
Q3 2009 17.81 16.36 5.35
Q4 2009 19.15 19.94 4.93
Q1 2010 21.19 21.69 6.97
Q2 2010 15.26 17.82 6.78
Q3 2010 16.16 18.52 6.83
Q4 2010 14.11 15.56 6.40
Q1 2011 15.90 17.46 6.72
Q2 2011 16.60 16.60 7.44
Q3 2011 13.47 13.47 7.49
Q4 2011 12.23 12.23 6.12
Q1 2012 13.39 13.39 6.00
Q2 2012 11.97 11.97 6.05
Q3 2012 13.33 13.33 6.93
Q4 2012 15.00 15.00 6.55
Q1 2013 15.07 15.07 6.14
Q2 2013 13.99 13.99 6.41
Q3 2013 16.05 16.05 7.65
Q4 2013 18.86 18.88 7.21
Q1 2014 19.84 19.86 8.60
Q2 2014 20.27 20.29 9.57
Q3 2014 19.51 19.53 8.53
Q4 2014 16.90 17.13 6.82
Q1 2015 19.54 19.83 6.79
Q2 2015 19.52 19.82 6.93
Q3 2015 17.94 18.25 6.21

Analysts Estimates (Million)

Item Q3 2015 (e) Q3 2015 (a) Change‬
Average 585.40 566.15 (3.3 %)

Estimates vs Actual (Million)

Item Q3 2015 (e) Q3 2015 (a) Change
Alistithmar Capital 532.00 566.15 6.4 %
SNB Capital 609.00 566.15 (7.0) %
Albilad Capital 636.00 566.15 (11.0) %
AlJazira Capital 667.80 566.15 (15.2) %
Value Capital 676.00 566.15 (16.3) %
Riyad Capital 717.00 566.15 (21.0) %
OSOOL AND BAKHEET 260.00 566.15 117.7 %

Current
Market Cap (M Riyal) 53,316.48
Enterprise Value (EV) (M) 43,645.36
Shares Outstanding ((M)) 476.04
EPS ( Riyal) (TTM) 7.04
Book Value (BV) ( Riyal) 39.12
Par Value ( Riyal) 10.00
Adjusted P/E (Last12) 15.31
P/E (TTM) 15.91
Price/book 2.86
Return on Average Assets (%) (TTM) 13.7
Return on Average Equity (%) (TTM) 18.5

Share Price

112.00
1.20 1.08 %

SABIC Agri-Nutrients Co. (SABIC AGRI-NUTRIENTS)


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