Saudi GDP forecast to drop by 4.2% in Q3 2020: GASTAT

Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to decline by 4.2% year-on-year (YoY) in Q3 2020, according to rapid estimates by the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT).

On a quarterly basis, GDP grew by 1.2% in the third quarter of 2020.

GASTAT published rapid quarterly GDP estimates for the first time in order to provide timely information on the Saudi economy for decision makers and users.

The authority defines “the quarterly rapid estimates of GDP” as a quarterly national accounting assessment process conducted within a short period after the end of the quarter while the period’s data is still incomplete.

Growth: Real GDP vs. GDP with seasonal adjustments
Period	Quarterly basis with seasonal adjustments	Annual basis
Q1 2018	+1.5%	+1.4%
Q2 2018	+1.2%	+1.6%
Q3 2018	+0.9%	+2.4%
Q4 2018	+0.6%	+4.3%
Q1 2019	(0.8%)	+1.7%
Q2 2019	+0.2%	+0.5%
Q3 2019	(0.6%)	(0.5%)
Q4 2019	+0.3%	(0.3%)
Q1 2020	(0.9%)	(1.0%)
Q2 2020	(4.9%)	(0.7%)
Q3 2020	+1.2%	(4.2%)

GASTAT emphasized that these rapid estimates will be produced on a regular basis in the future and more details on GDP, its sub-components and economic growth in the economic sectors will be provided in the second version of quarterly GDP as more data becomes available.

Rapid quarterly GDP estimates are published based on constant prices 40 days after the end of the reference quarter.

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