A look at Saudi Arabia’s key economic indicators and forecasts

24/10/2018 Argaam Special

 

As the highly anticipated Future Investment Initiative (FII) 2018 conference gets underway in Riyadh, Argaam has compiled a list of Saudi Arabia’s key economic indicators and forecasts.

 

Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 2.1 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2019, according to the Ministry of Finance.

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had previously raised its forecasts for Saudi GDP growth to 2.2 percent this year, and 2.4 percent in 2019.

 

Revenue for the 2019 state budget is estimated at around SAR 978 billion, an increase of 11 percent year-on-year, while expenditure is forecast to rise 7 percent.

 

Meanwhile, the deficit is expected to continue to decline gradually over the medium term, from 4.1 percent of GDP in 2019 to 3.7 percent of GDP in 2021.

 

Economic Indices Growth Rates (SAR bln)

 

Projections

Estimates

Year

2018

2019

2020

2021

Revenue

882

978

1,005

1,045

Expenditure

1,030

1,106

1,143

1,170

Deficit

(148)

(128)

(138)

(125)

Gross nominal GDP

2,934

3,136

3,232

3,387

Deficit/GDP

(5.0%)

(4.1%)

(4.2%)

(3.7%)

Actual GDP growth

2.1 %

2.3 %

2.2 %

2.4 %

 

GDP grew by 1.4 percent in H1 2018, compared to -0.8 percent in the same period last year. Non-oil GDP recorded growth of 2 percent in the first half, compared to 0.1 percent in H1 2017.

 

Oil GDP rose 1 percent to SAR 552.32 billion in H1 2018, contributing 42.9 percent to the Kingdom’s GDP, compared to 43.1 percent a year earlier.

 

GDP H1 2018

Sector

H1 2017

H1 2018*

Variation

Oil Sector

546.98

552.32

+1.0%

Non Oil Sector

Private Sector

500.99

508.28

+1.5%

Public Sector

212.54

219.62

+3.3%

Total

713.54

727.9

+2.0%

Total oil & non-oil sectors

 

1,260.52

1,280.22

+1.6%

Import fees

 

8.97

6.79

( 24.3% )

GDP

 

1,269.49

1,287.01

+1.4%

* Preliminary data.                                                                                                           

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