OPEC sees global oil demand rising in 2017, 2018

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects world oil demand growth to accelerate in 2017 and 2018, while oil supply from non-member producers is likely to grow at a slower pace, according to its latest monthly oil market report.

The group raised its estimates for this year’s demand growth by 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.5 million bpd, compared to its previous monthly report.

The forecast for 2018 is also up 30,000 bpd over last month’s report, with demand expected to grow by 1.4 million bpd “due to the improving economic outlook in the world economy, particularly China and Russia.”

Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 700,000 bpd in 2017, down 100,000 bpd from the previous report. In 2018, the growth in non-OPEC oil supply saw a downward revision of 60,000 bpd to stand at 900,000 bpd.

OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids production are seen averaging 6.5 million bpd in 2018, an increase of 200,000 bpd.

OPEC expects its crude to average 32.8 million bpd in 2017, around 600,000 bpd higher than in 2016. The cartel’s crude in 2018 is projected at 33.1 million bpd, about 300,000 bpd higher than in 2017.

Meanwhile, in September, OPEC crude oil production increased by 88,000 bpd over the previous month, according to secondary sources, to average 32.75 million bpd, the report said.

“Crude oil output increased in Libya, Nigeria, Iraq and Gabon, while production showed declines mainly in Venezuela,” the report said.

According to secondary sources, production in Saudi Arabia declined slightly in September to 9.975 million bpd. Direct communication, however, showed slight increase to 9.973 million bpd.

Write to Nadeshda Zareen at nadeshda.zareen@argaamplus.com