Analysts expect 25 bps interest rate cut as Fed meets today

18/09/2024 Argaam Special
Federal Reserveheadquarters

Federal Reserve headquarters


Global markets are awaiting the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting today, Sept. 18, amid speculation of the first interest rate cut in more than two years.

 

The Fed began its tightening monetary policy in March 2022, raising interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) between 0.25% and 0.50%. Later, it accelerated the pace of hikes in the subsequent six meetings, bringing rates to 4.25% and 4.5% by the end of 2022.

 

In 2023, the Fed eased the pace of rate increases, raising rates four times and holding them steady four times to reach 5.25% and 5.5%, the highest in 23 years. In 2024, the Fed maintained interest rates in five consecutive meetings.

 

US interest rates since March 2022

March 2022

The benchmark interest rate was raised for the first time since 2018 by 25 bps to a target range of 0.25% to 0.50%

May 2022

The interest rate was increased by 50 bps to a target range of 0.75% to 1%

June 2022

The interest rate was raised by 75 bps to a target range of 1.5% to 1.75%

July 2022

The benchmark interest rate was increased by 75 bps to a target range of 2.25% to 2.50%

September 2022

The benchmark interest rate was upped 75 bps to a target range of 3% to 3.25%

November 2022

The interest rate was raised by 75 bps to a target range of 3.75% to 4%

December 2022

The benchmark interest rate was hiked by 50 bps to a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%

February 2023

The interest rate was raised by 25 bps to a target range of 4.5% to 4.75%

March 2023

The benchmark interest rate was increased by 25 bps to a target range of 4.75% to 5%

May 2023

The benchmark interest rate was raised by 25 bps to a target range of 5% to 5.25%

June 2023

Maintaining the interest rate

July 2023

The benchmark interest rate was upped by 25 bps to a target range of 5.25% to 5.5%

September 2023

Keeping interest rate unchanged

November 2023

Maintaining steady interest rate

December 2023

Keeping interest rate unchanged

January 2024

Keeping interest rate unchanged

March 2024

Keeping interest rate unchanged

May 2024

Keeping interest rate unchanged

June 2024

Maintaining steady interest rate

July 2024

Maintaining steady interest rate

September 2024

Expectations of a 25-bps interest rate cut

 

Analysts surveyed by Argaam expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates between 25 and 50 bps.

 

 

Markets are pricing in a 50-bps cut, says Saad Al-Thaqfan

 

Saad Al-Thaqfan, a board member of the Saudi Economic Association, said that expectations are based on recent inflation and labor market data, which indicate the possibility of cutting interest rates by 25 to 50 bps in the next Fed meeting.

 

The markets tend to price a 50-bps cut, he stated, adding that this will positively affect financial markets due to its stimulating effect on economic activity.

 

He pointed out that cutting interest rates by 25 bps will have a “limited negative impact”, as financial markets have already priced a 50-bps cut.

 

 

Inflation risks persist, 25 bps cut most likely: BlackRock

 

Ben Powell, Chief Middle East and APAC Investment Strategist for BlackRock Investment Institute, said a 25 bps rate cut is the most likely, given the risk of persistent inflation.

 

The Fed is likely taking the view that the underlying economic activity is more resilient than markets currently expect, he said, adding that market fears of a recession are overrated.

 

"A 50 bps rate cut is still possible if the Fed sees that cooling job growth is a sign that it has fallen behind the curve," Powell pointed out.

 

“Or it could reason that, with pandemic-induced inflation now behind us, restrictive policy rates are no longer necessary and, therefore, it has the space to bring them rapidly to neutral,” he added.

 

The main problem with this approach is the belief that we are in a new regime where structural shifts, such as geopolitical changes and an aging population, are set to add global inflationary pressures, requiring higher interest rates than in the past, he explained.

 

Powell does not think the Fed has much room to cut rates before inflation picks up again.

 

“Regardless of whether the Fed cuts by 25 or 50bps, we could see a market reaction. If 25 basis points, it would be a notable hawkish move relative to current market pricing. Small cap and cyclical shares in particular have outperformed in recent days on hopes for 50 basis points,” he said.

 

Meanwhile, a 50 bps rate cut would be a lenient move compared to what is expected.

 

Sectors to benefit in Saudi market

 

Al-Thaqfan expects the interest rate reduction to be positive for the banking sector, especially those that provide real estate loans with fixed interest rates, as the decrease in the cost of financing would increase the net interest margin for banks as well as financing companies.

 

He pointed out that companies with high debts would see an improvement in their earnings as loan burden eases.

 

The cement sector would benefit from the increase in demand with the recovery of the construction sector.

 

Real estate investment traded (REIT) funds, which were affected by higher interest rates, may also see an improvement in their performance with a reduction, since they rely heavily on financing.

 

Moreover, Al-Thaqfan expects REITs, whose profits were affected by the rise in interest rates, would benefit, given the size of loans as a percentage of the funds’ assets.

 

The petrochemical sector, too, may witness a recovery due to the increase in demand for its products, following an expected economic improvement.

 

The Saudi Central Bank usually mirrors the interest rate moves of the US Federal Reserve, due to the riyal-dollar peg.

 

Changes in Saudi Arabia’s Repo, Reverse Repo Rates

Date

Reverse Repo

Repo

March 2020

125 bps (-50 bps)

175 bps (-50 bps)

50 bps (-75 bps)

100 bps (-75 bps)

March 2022

75 bps (+25 bps)

125 bps (+25 bps)

May 2022

125 bps (+50 bps)

175 bps (+50 bps)

June 2022

175 bps (+50 bps)

225 bps (+50 bps)

July 2022

250 bps (+75 bps)

300 bps (+75 bps)

September 2022

325 bps (+75 bps)

375 bps (+75 bps)

November 2022

400 bps (+75 bps)

450 bps (+75 bps)

December 2022

450 bps (+50 bps)

500 bps (+50 bps)

February 2023

475 bps (+25 bps)

525 bps (+25 bps)

March 2023

500 bps (+25 bps)

550 bps (+25 bps)

May 2023

525 bps (+25 bps)

575 bps (+25 bps)

July 2023

550 bps (+25 bps)

600 bps (+25 bps)

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