Saudi retail sales poised for 5% annual growth over 5 yrs: Kearney Middle East

Ali Shahid, Principal in Consumer Industries and Retail at Kearney Middle East

Saudi Arabia will likely maintain its exceptional performance in the retail sector, with sales expected to increase by 5% annually over the next five years, said Ali Shahid, Principal in Consumer Industries and Retail at Kearney Middle East, in an interview with Argaam.

On the sidelines of the Retail Leadership Summit (RLS), Shahid said optimism surrounding the Saudi market stems from a confluence of factors. The non-oil economy's consistent growth, coupled with rising income levels are key factors. The business environment, while limited in scope, is modern and evolving. This is in addition to the untapped potential for retail growth in both urban centers and through large-scale development projects.

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The Kingdom achieved a remarkable advancement on the Kearney 2024 Global Retail Development Index, jumping nine positions from 12th to 3rd place, Shahid highlighted.

This improvement is credited to various factors, notably the substantial growth in key areas of overall economy. This includes a notable rise in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, a 2% increase in population, and enhanced non-oil gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Interview details:

1) What contributed to the significant rise in Saudi Arabia's ranking in the Kearney Global Retail Development Index?

Saudi Arabia experienced a notable surge in the Kearney Index for 2024, climbing nine positions from 12th to 3rd place. This advancement can be attributed to various factors, including substantial growth in key sectors of its overall economy. Notably, there was an increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, a 2% population growth, and enhanced non-oil gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

The Kingdom's global ranking was further propelled by overall retail trade growth, robust per capita retail expansion, and the proliferation of modern retail practices.

2) What are the expectations for the growth of non-cash retail transactions in Saudi Arabia?

A: The Saudi economy is witnessing a significant transition from cash to digital transactions, evident in the rapid growth of non-cash and e-commerce transactions. Factors fueling this shift include the rising adoption of mobile payments and digital wallets, government backing for the "Mada" card payment system, and the prevalence of "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) systems.

Digital transactions are projected to sustain an annual growth rate between 8% and 10% over the next three to four years.

3) Why is the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, particularly Saudi Arabia, poised to become one of the fastest-growing retail markets?

A: The Kearney findings suggest that the MENA region is set to become a flourishing hub in global retail trade, driven by a burgeoning population of tech-savvy middle-class youth exhibiting ambitious shopping behaviors.

E-commerce opportunities, still evolving, present substantial untapped investment potential. The region is anticipated to witness a doubling of income levels by 2040, fueled by robust Internet penetration in emerging markets.

For Saudi Arabia, factors such as the rise of tech-savvy middle-class youth, a doubling of female workforce participation, and government initiatives to develop and diversify the retail sector contribute to its attractiveness for global retailers.

Additionally, advancements in digital transformation of stores and payment methods, logistics services, and a focus on enhancing the customer experience have elevated the Saudi retail market.

Significant growth is expected in e-commerce, especially in fast delivery operations, with the sector projected to double in size in the coming years.

4) What criteria does the Kearney Index adopt to gauge retail potential in 35 to 40 emerging economies?

A: The Kearney Index employs four key sub-indicators for measurement:

Market Attractiveness: Evaluates the size of the retail market and its appeal to retailers.

Country Risks: Assesses potential risks faced by retail stores that could affect their ability to conduct business and create value for customers and shareholders.

Market Saturation: Considers competition levels and the number of competitors in the market.

Time Pressure: Examines the speed of modern retail spread and market size increase.

5) What are the expectations for the retail sector's growth in Saudi Arabia over the next five years?

A: Anticipated sales growth in Saudi Arabia's retail sector is around 5% annually over the next five years. This optimism is grounded in several key factors, including sustained growth in the non-oil economy, rising incomes, the presence of a relatively limited yet evolving modern business environment, and ongoing growth potential for expanding retail trade, both within cities and through large-scale projects.