OPEC sees its oil market share shrinking, lowers demand view

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will supply a diminishing amount of oil in the next five years as output of US shale and other rival sources expands, the exporter group said, despite a growing appetite for energy fed by global economic expansion.

OPEC's production of crude oil and other liquids is expected to decline to 32.8 million barrels per day (mpd) by 2024, the group said in its 2019 World Oil Outlook published on Tuesday. That compares with 35 mbd in 2019.

Rising climate activism in the West and widening use of alternative fuels are putting the strength of long-term oil demand under more scrutiny. OPEC cut its medium- and long-term oil demand forecasts in the report.

"Non-OPEC supply prospects have been revised up sharply, as US tight oil, in particular, has again outperformed expectations," OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo wrote in the foreword of the report, using another term for shale.

Vienna-based OPEC expects supply of US tight oil to reach 16.9 mbd in 2024 from 12 mpd in 2019, although the expansion will slow and peak at 17.4 mbd in 2029.

The organization, which pumps almost a third of global oil supply, now sees oil consumption in 2023 reaching 103.9 million bpd, down from 104.5 million bpd in last year's report.

OPEC cited a recent lowering of economic growth forecasts plus efficiency gains and use of other fuels for the lower demand outlook.