Global oil demand to cross 100 mbd threshold in 2020, says OPEC

World oil demand in 2020 is forecast to grow by 1.14 million barrels a day (mbd) year-on-year (YoY) and is projected to exceed the 100 mbd threshold to reach 101.01 mbd, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its latest monthly oil market report released on Thursday.

The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.09 mbd with Americas being the only OECD region in positive growth territory. OECD Europe and Asia-Pacific oil demand will drop by 0.03 mbd and 0.07 mbd YoY, respectively, the OPEC report added.

In the non-OECD region, oil demand is anticipated to add 1.05 mbd with most of the growth coming from Other Asia, particularly India, followed by China, the OPEC report said, adding that the world oil demand in 2020 is similar to the current year rate of growth.

However, it maintained that several factors associated with 2020 oil demand projections could influence oil demand behavior going forward.

These factors include: macroeconomic developments in major consuming countries; the strength of substitution with natural gas and other fuels; subsidy programs and their removal.

Other factors include the effect of commissioning/delays/closure of mega projects in the downstream; and fuel-efficiency programs, especially in the transportation sector.

The transportation sector is anticipated to lead growth on strong demand for motor and aviation fuels. Demand from the petrochemical sector will remain strong, although it will ease slightly in the US due to lower ethane cracking capacity additions, OPEC maintained.

In the Middle East, oil demand is expected to rise by 0.08 mbd over 2019, mainly as a result of the assumed improvement in the economy.

In terms of sectors, petrochemicals and transportation are foreseen providing support to oil demand growth in 2020, while total oil consumption for the Middle East is expected to reach 8.23 mbd.

OPEC said demand for OPEC crude for 2020 is forecast at 29.3 mbd, 1.3 mbd lower than the 2019 level, while non-OPEC oil supply in 2020 is projected to grow by 2.44 mbd for an average 66.87 mbd.