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What do analysts expect from Southern Cement’s Q4 2024 results?
In this report, Argaam captures the expected results of Southern Province Cement Co. (SPCC) in Q4 2024, in additional to its key events, quarterly revenue and profits, as well as performance and profitability indicators.
The fourth-quarter revenue is forecast to fall by 9.03% year-on-year (YoY) to SAR 234.67 million.
Quarter Revenue Changes (M Riyal)
| Item | Q4 2023 |
Q1 2024 |
Q2 2024 |
Q3 2024 |
Q4 2024 (Average Estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 257.95 | 250.67 | 214.32 | 232.52 | 234.67 |
| Change % | (23.04%) | (16.40%) | (5.17%) | (18.83%) | (9.03%) |
Quarter Net Income Changes (M Riyal)
| Item | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 (Average Estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | 74.21 | 62.12 | 30.00 | 53.05 | 43.58 |
| Extraordinary income/expense | 16.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.88 | - |
| Net Profit Before Unusual Items | 57.29 | 62.12 | 30.00 | 48.17 | - |
| EPS Before Unusual Items (Riyal/Share) | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.21 | 0.34 | 0.31 |
Key events in Q4 2024
A report from the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) showed an almost 2% rise in the price of a 50-kg cement bag in Q4 2024, reaching SAR 14.2 apiece from SAR 13.9 in the year-ago period. Meanwhile, the price fell by nearly 1.4% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ).
Monthly data indicated a 10% YoY drop in Southern Cement’s sales volume in Q4 2024, reaching 1.10 million tons from 1.24 million tons in the same period a year earlier. Sales volume also rose 5.3% QoQ, as shown in the table below:
Quarterly Profit and Revenue (M Riyal)
Average Forecasts
The cement producer is expected to log a net profit of SAR 43.6 million in Q4 2024, a 23.9% decline from SAR 57.3 million a year earlier, according to average estimates by eight research firms.
Total quarterly sales - thousand tons
| Q4 - 2024 | Q4 - 2023 | Change (%) | Q3 - 2024 | Change (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cement Sales | 1,105.00 | 1,240.00 | (10.89 %) | 1,049.00 | 5.34 % |
Performance & profitability indicators
The following table shows the stock’s performance trailing 12 months (TTM) and year to date, as well as its P/E and earnings per share:
Quarterly Actuals vs Estimates (M Riyal)
Average Estimate (M Riyal)
| Analyst | Million Riyals |
|---|---|
| Osool and Bakheet Investment Co. | 54.09 |
| Riyad Capital | 50.00 |
| AlJazira Capital Company | 47.80 |
| SNB Capital Company | 44.10 |
| Al Rajhi Capital Company | 44.00 |
| Value Capital Co. | 41.32 |
| Securities & Investment Company | 35.30 |
| United Securities Company | 32.00 |
| Average | 43.58 |
| Net Profit Before Unusual Items (2023 - Q4) | 57.29 |
| Change % | (23.94%) |
Stock Performance
| Item | The Company | TASI |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | (8.41 %) | 2.95 % |
| Change(12M) | (22.64 %) | 3.00 % |
| Previous Close | 34.35 | 12,433.58 |
| P/E adjusted (x) | 24.34 | 25.09 |
| EPS (TTM) before unusual items (SAR/Share) | 1.41 | - |
Valuation Data (Latest Share Price)
| P/E (TTM) | 18.15 |
| P/E Before Unusual Items (TTM) | 18.52 |
| P/BV | 1.31 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.48 % |
| Market Cap. (M) | 4,424.00 |
| Return on Average Assets | 5.73 % |
| Return on Average Equity | 6.54 % |
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