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The announcement by the index provider MSCI to increase China A’s weight in Emerging Market (EM) index to 3.3 percent from 0.7 percent is likely to have a limited impact on the inclusion of Saudi Arabia in the MSCI EM Index later this year, Arqaam Capital said in a report on Sunday.
In December 2018, the report said, MSCI launched a consultation proposing to increase China A’s weight in its EM indexes on the back of a successful initial implementation in 2018 where Large Cap China A shares were added to the MSCI indexes with a 5 percent factor.
Also read: Saudi banking sector to remain profitable in 2019 despite low oil prices
The proposal suggested that MSCI would increase the inclusion factor of large cap stocks to 20 percent, would include large cap ChiNext shares with a 20 percent inclusion factor, as well as mid cap China A shares with a 20 percent inclusion factor, Arqaam Capital added in the report.
MSCI has now announced that it will go ahead with this weight increase, almost in-line with the initial proposal, over three phases during the upcoming index reviews in 2019.
“MSCI EM China A weight to be increased over three phases to around 3.3 percent from the current 0.7 percent, resulting in about $12.7 billion of inflows, coinciding with Saudi Arabia (around 2.7 percent weight) and Argentina (around 0.3 percent) EM inclusions,” the report said, adding that “the announcement will have a limited impact on Saudi Arabia’s inclusion, only bringing down expected total passive inflows to around $13.3 billion from $13.5 billion.”
The announcement is also likely to have limited impact on the Middle East & Africa region as outflows were already expected in May and August, Arqaam Capital report said.
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