OPEC cuts 2024, 2025 global oil demand forecasts for 5th month

OPEC lowered today, Dec. 11, its 2024 and 2025 global oil demand growth forecasts for the fifth consecutive month.

In its report, OPEC expected 2024 global oil demand to rise by 1.61 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, and 1.45 million bpd in 2025, compared to its previous estimates for 1.82 million and 1.54 million bpd, respectively.

The Vienna-based organization added that the key driver for the expected growth by year-end is the stabilization of economic growth in China, India, and other non-OECD countries.

OPEC described the expected growth in 2025 as "healthy," explaining that the majority of the increase (1.3 million bpd) will be driven by consumption in non-OECD countries, particularly China and Asia.

It maintained its global economic growth forecasts unchanged at 3.1% and 3% for the current and upcoming years, respectively. However, it raised its estimate for US growth to 2.8% due to strong performance in the second half of 2024.

The organization forecast a growth in oil supplies from non-member countries of its cooperation agreement by 1.3 million bpd in 2024, compared to the previous month's estimate of 1.2 million bpd, and maintained its supply forecast for 2025 at 1.1 million bpd.

It explained that the expected growth in supplies from these countries next year is primarily due to increased production in the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway.

As for member countries of the Declaration of Cooperation, OPEC reduced its demand forecast for this year by 300,000 bpd to 42.4 million bpd, and by 400,000 bpd to 42.7 million bpd in 2025.