Decline in nuclear power capacity would threaten global energy security: IEA

Nuclear power capacity in advanced economies could fall sharply, making the global energy transition harder and more costly, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

With nuclear power facing an uncertain future in many countries, the world risks a steep decline in its use in advanced economies that could result in billions of tons of additional carbon emissions, IEA report added.

Nuclear is the second-largest low-carbon power source in the world today, accounting for 10 percent of global electricity generation, IEA report said, adding that it is second only to hydropower at 16 percent.

“For advanced economies – including the United States, Canada, the European Union and Japan – nuclear has been the biggest low-carbon source of electricity for more than 30 years and remains so today. It plays an important role in electricity security in several countries,” IEA noted.

However, it added, “the future of nuclear power is uncertain as ageing plants are beginning to close in advanced economies, partly because of policies to phase them out but also as a result of economic and regulatory factors.”

Without policy changes, IEA cautioned, advanced economies could lose 25 percent of their nuclear capacity by 2025 and as much as two-thirds of it by 2040.

The lack of further lifetime extensions of existing nuclear plants and new projects could result in an additional 4 billion tons of CO2 emissions.

Some countries have opted out of nuclear power in light of concerns about safety and other issues. Many others, however, still see a role for nuclear in their energy transitions but are not doing enough to meet their goals, according to the report.

“Without an important contribution from nuclear power, the global energy transition will be that much harder,” Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director said.

The new report finds that extending the operational life of existing nuclear plants requires substantial capital investment. But its cost is competitive with other electricity generation technologies, including new solar and wind projects, and can lead to a more secure, less disruptive energy transition.

Investment in new nuclear projects in advanced economies is even more difficult. New projects planned in Finland, France and the US are not yet in service and have faced major cost overruns.

A sharp decline in nuclear power capacity in advanced economies would have major implications, IEA report added.

Without additional lifetime extensions and new builds, achieving key sustainable energy goals, including international climate targets, would become more difficult and expensive, it maintained.

If other low-carbon sources, namely wind and solar PV, are to fill the shortfall in nuclear, their deployment would have to accelerate to an unprecedented level, IEA added.

In the past 20 years, wind and solar PV capacity has increased by about 580 gigawatts in advanced economies.

But over the next 20 years, nearly five times that amount would need to be added. Such a drastic increase in renewable power generation would create serious challenges in integrating the new sources into the broader energy system.