OPEC raises 2018 forecast for non-member oil production

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its forecast for non-OPEC supply in 2018, increasing its estimates by 0.32 million barrels per day (bpd) to average 59.26 million bpd this year, the group’s latest monthly oil report showed.

The supply growth in 2018 from non-cartel producers is estimated at 1.4 million bpd – an upward revision of 250,000 bpd from last month’s report.

OPEC said the revision is based on its expectations for higher production in the US, Mexico, UK, Brazil, and China.

“For 2018, the US total liquids supply forecast was revised up by 160,000 bpd, to show annual growth of 1.3 million bpd year-on-year (YoY), on the back of higher expected output of crude oil … mainly from the major shale plays,” the report said.

Meanwhile, OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs) are expected to grow by 180,000 bpd to average 6.49 million bpd in 2018.

OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids output in January 2018 rose by 40,000 bpd to average 6.48 million bpd.

According to secondary sources, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 8,000 bpd in January to average 32.3 million bpd, the report said.

Production mainly decreased in Venezuela and Angola, partially offset by output gains in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Libya.

Saudi Arabia’s production rose by just over 23,000 bpd to 9.977 million bpd, based on secondary sources.

Based on direct communication, the Kingdom’s output increased 2,900 bpd to 9.983million bpd in January.

OPEC expects demand for oil to grow at a faster pace in 2018 than its earlier estimates.

“In 2018, world oil demand growth was revised up by around 60,000 bpd to 1.59 million bpd compared with last month’s assessment, leading to total global consumption of around 98.6 million bpd,” the report said.

“The upward revision was mainly in line with improving economic outlook in OECD America, Europe and other Asia,” it added.

Write to Nadeshda Zareen at nadeshda.zareen@argaamplus.com