Geopolitical conflicts to drive oil prices in 2018: survey

Geopolitics risks, including the threat of war in the Middle East and on the Korean Peninsula, has displaced supply cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC countries as the biggest driver of crude prices in 2018, according to two-thirds of those polled in a Gulf Intelligence GIQ Survey.

Brent crude is expected to rise again this year to average in the $60 per barrel range, 51 of the 100 Gulf energy industry executives polled believed.

Only 22 percent said crude prices would be in the $70 per barrel range, while six percent said prices would remain in the below $40 range.

Thirty-four percent of the GIQ survey participants expected the average compliance level of the OPEC/non-OPEC countries on supply cut to be at 70 percent.  However, 32 percent voted in favor of 80 percent compliance and 12 percent expected a full, 100 percent compliance level.

After oil prices crashed to below $30 per barrel in early 2016, OPEC and 12 non-OPEC nations agreed to cut total production by 1.8 million barrels a day in December 2016. In subsequent pacts, the group committed to extend the cutbacks until the end of 2018.

These actions propelled Brent crude to rise and average above $50 a barrel last year.

Meanwhile, 59 percent of the survey respondents said Saudi Aramco would launch its initial public offering (IPO) this year.

On Tuesday, Reuters reported that the Aramco has invited international banks, who are seeking to act as global coordinators in the oil firm’s proposed initial public offering (IPO), for meetings later this month.

The Kingdom plans to list up to 5 percent of the world’s largest oil producer on Tadawul, in addition to one or more international venues, in a probable $100 billion listing.