JP Morgan sees 40% US recession chances

JP Morgan’s Chief Economist sees a growing chance of a US recession this year, cautioning that current policies could permanently dent the country’s appeal as a top investment destination.

Bruce Kasman voiced deep concerns over the economy, Reuters reported, warning that the Trump administration’s approach could weaken trust in US governance, adding to investor uncertainty.

While he has yet to revise his official outlook, Kasman now sees a 40% chance of recession, up from 30% at the start of the year.

JP Morgan still expects gross domestic product (GDP) growth to slow to 2% by the end of 2025.

Kasman added that the risk of a recession could rise by 50% or more if President Donald Trump moves forward with the tariffs he threatened from April.

Decades of confidence in US assets are now at stake, Kasman said, stressing that policy uncertainty could erode investor trust, posing long-term risks to financial markets.