Jadwa raises forecasts for Saudi economic growth to 8.7% in 2022

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Jadwa Investment raised its forecasts for Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth to 8.7% in 2022, compared to previous estimates of 7.7%.

“We see oil GDP rising year-on-year (YoY) at 16.6% and non-oil growth rising by 4.3%, primarily due to higher non-oil private sector growth of 4.4%,” the brokerage said.

Oil and non-oil sectors would continue their growth in the second half of 2022, Jadwa said, expecting higher growth in three sectors, namely non-oil manufacturing; wholesale & retail trade, restaurants & hotels; and transport, storage & communication.

“Looking ahead, the continued growth in the local economy will have a positive impact on credit to the private sector. For the longer term, we also expect to see further expansion in lending with the continued efforts by different entities and projects towards Vision 2030,” the research firm noted.

Despite a surge in oil prices during Q2 2022, Jadwa maintained its Brent oil forecast at $102 per barrel for 2022, with a slight upward revision in the Kingdom’s average oil output from 10.5 to 10.6 million barrels per day.

It expects government revenue to total SAR 1.338 trillion in 2022, noting that the fiscal surplus will total SAR 335 billion this year.