World Bank says higher oil prices to boost Saudi Arabia's public finance, external position

Issam Abu Sulaiman, the World Bank's Regional Director for the GCC

The rise in oil prices would strengthen the Kingdom's public finance as well as the external position of the Kingdom in particular, and the GCC region in general, Issam Abu Sulaiman, the World Bank's Regional Director for the GCC, told Argaam in an exclusive.

He added that higher oil returns and government financial measures, such as boosting the capital spending efficiency helped the Kingdom secure a strong financial position.

The rise in oil prices reflects the recovery of global economy through increasing demand for oil, which in turn will support consumers and investor confidence and lead to recovery of the Kingdom's non-oil sector.

According to estimates, the fiscal deficit will decline from 11% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 to 3.8% in 2021, Abu Sulaiman said, adding that the current account balance is expected to record a surplus at 4.8% of GDP in 2021, compared with a deficit of 2.3% in 2020.

Touching on the reasons behind the bank’s forecasts of 2.4% growth in the Kingdom’s economy, the top official said the oil and non-oil sectors accelerated the Kingdom's economic recovery in 2021, along with the decline in COVID-19 infections, increase in the vaccination rates, and ease of travel restrictions.

The economy also got a boost from the rise in crude oil prices on OPEC+ agreement to gradually end output cuts by September 2022, in addition to increasing oil output to 9.5 million barrels per day (pbd), which is close to the pre-pandemic levels.

Abu Sulaiman expects the oil sector to recover in 2022, when OPEC+ fully ends output cuts, noting that the non-oil sector will also continue its growth trend, which reflects the increased private consumption, the gradual resumption of religious tourism, and the rise in domestic capital spending as indicated in the National Strategy that aims to invest SAR 12 trillion over the next 10 years.

The privatization program would also bring additional benefits to the Kingdom, including foreign direct investment, and boost job opportunities for citizens.

The inflation rose to 3.4% in 2020, mostly due to the increase in value-added tax (VAT).

The inflation rate will likely hit 3.3%, and then decline further later. To maintain competitiveness, employers will raise salaries to compensate employees for inflation.

Abu Sulaiman ruled out that the pension fund's returns would be significantly affected by inflation, as a very small percentage of its assets are invested in cash or cash equivalents. Thus, it would be protected from the repercussions of inflation.

Investments in governance, social capital, and inclusive systems will drive the productivity of the national asset portfolio and create a more sustainable, diversified and resilient economy, the official said. “Reforms in these areas are made in line with Vision 2030, as predictability for domestic and foreign investors is key amid the accelerated pace of reforms."

The new coronavirus variants that are resistant to current vaccines are among the main risks to the global recovery. The strength and duration of the regional and global recovery depend on how the virus is contained in all countries.

Uncertainty affects the oil market, which negatively weighs on the region's financial sustainability, Abu Sulaiman concluded.