Global oil consumption is falling at the fastest rate for almost five years as manufacturing activity and trade flows slip around the world and vehicle production tumbles.

 

Demand in the top 18 consuming countries, each using more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd), fell by almost 0.2 percent in the three months between March and May compared with the same period a year earlier.

 

Oil use is falling at the fastest rate since the third quarter of 2014, according to national government data submitted to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative.

 

Falling consumption five years ago, combined with surging US shale output and Saudi Arabia’s refusal to cut production, led to the price slump in 2014-2016.

 

This time around, consumption has also stalled, and shale output is surging again, but Saudi production cuts have limited the fall in prices.

 

Front-month Brent futures prices have so far fallen by $27 per barrel, or just over 30 percent, from their recent peak compared with a decline of almost $90 - or 77 percent - between June 2014 and January 2016.

 

Like the earlier episode, however, a sustained period of lower prices will be needed to curb shale production growth and make consumption more affordable to restore market balance.

 

The adjustment is already underway, with the number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States down by almost 120, or 13 percent, over the last nine months.

 

US crude oil production growth has decelerated to a year-on-year rate of around 1.6 million bpd, down from more than 2.0 million bpd at the end of 2018.

 

As a rule of thumb, it takes 3-4 months for a change in benchmark oil prices to filter through to US drilling rates and 9-12 months to affect production.

 

The sustained fall in oil prices since October 2018 will therefore lead to much slower growth in US production in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the first half of 2020.

 

Production and consumption should rebalance by mid-2020, provided the global economy does not slide into a recession in the meantime, cutting oil use further.

 

Recession risk is now the single biggest factor driving oil prices because it will determine whether recent price falls will be enough to rebalance the market, or whether a deeper and longer slump is needed.

Comments 9

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aboanod

منذ 1 سنه

يا ساتررر كما ذكرت لكم سابقا شركات الاسمنتات ومواد البناء والعقار الى الطريق المنحدره ؟ الله المعين

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waleedrashad

منذ 1 سنه
Replying to   aboanod

وسبكيم وكل الأسهم التي تشتريها أيضا غلى الطريق المنحدرة

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أبو مٌحمد

منذ 1 سنه
Replying to   aboanod

صحيح الى الطريق المنحدرة للطريق السريع الى الامام

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|( الفيصل )|

منذ 1 سنه
Replying to   aboanod

 

ما هكذا تورد الإبل بارك الله فيك فعلى الرغم من تراخي أداء قطاع الأسمنتات  إلا أن الأمر لم يصل إلى الطريق المنحدرة يا أبا العنود و لن يصل إلى تلك المرحلة إن شاء الله و في المقابل فإن تذبذب أداء أسمنت العربية يكاد يكون هو ديدن الشركة و نسأل الله أن يرزق الكل و الجميع من واسع فضله 🌹 

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ISD

منذ 1 سنه
Replying to   aboanod

تركت كل شركات الاسمنت الاخرى وعلقت فقط على العربية بشكل تعميمي على القطاع؟ هل تحاول ان تضلل الاخرين؟

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Azoz1986

منذ 1 سنه

ماش والله مخيبة الارباح

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TASI Investor

منذ 1 سنه

اسمنت العربية من اصعب الشركات التي ممكن تتوقع ادائها 

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Fadel2019

منذ 1 سنه
Replying to   TASI Investor

اوفقك الراي

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Nmah

منذ 1 سنه
Replying to   TASI Investor

هذا بسبب تداخل نتائج شركة اسمنت القطرانة الأردنية في نتائج الشركة الأم اسمنت العربية

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